九月7,2019

#TPonMB:杜特尔特青年’s 心脏 vs Comelec’s 冠宗

在过去的几周中,我们’ve been witness to the word war between former National Youth Commission and Duterte Youth party-list nominee Ronald 心脏 and Comelec commissioner Rowena 冠宗, with the core issue being 心脏’有资格获得杜特尔特青年’s first nominee.

[注意:这是第一篇 发表在《马尼拉公报》上 在2019年8月24日。]


Comelec on one hand sees Duterte Youth, as its name suggests, a youth sector party-list, so that the age limit on nominees (no older than 30 years by law) apply. The 34-year-old 心脏, meanwhile, argues that the party represents young professionals (yuppies), who are generally defined as professionals in their 20s or 30s.

心脏一直是一个有争议的人物,但裂痕“formally”在五月下旬,当关松质疑Cardema时开始’资格。这是在杜特尔特青年组织(Duterte Youth)请求以新的一套取代Cardema在最前面的五个提名之后。六月初,Comelec批准了这一任命,但Guanzon在她的反对意见中提出了年龄问题。

随后发生了一场媒体大战,当关松在7月中旬的一条推文中发布了涉嫌文字威胁以及评论时,这场战争进一步升级到新的水平“您认为是谁发送的?明显。” The public felt 冠宗 was alluding to 心脏, an allegation 心脏 swiftly denied.

The Comelec in early August cancelled 心脏’基于年龄的提名。

A little later, 心脏 accused 冠宗 of extortion as he claimed she asked him for a large sum and the appointment of several officials. 冠宗 shrugged off the allegations.

心脏 and 冠宗 threatened to sue each other, with 心脏 going the extra mile by blaming 冠宗’使他的亲戚生病的奇迹。

心脏 then publicly requested for the Palace’的帮助下,宫廷迅速拒绝了这一要求。

心脏’复议的动议仍在进行中,他在最近(且时间很长)的电话交谈中告诉这位作家,他仍然希望获得批准。

冠宗, meanwhile, is on a roll. We have to give the commissioner some credit: she has a knack for zingers that 心脏 sorely lacks.

All things considered, I cannot help but view the odds are stacked against 心脏 while 冠宗 has basically nothing to lose. That is, the current political landscape vis-à-vis the 冠宗-Cardema rift suggests that 心脏’过去几个月来的举措可能是一系列巨大的政治错误估计。

FIRST, 冠宗 has little to lose. This is just one of the myriad electoral cases 冠宗 handles and she will remain a commissioner no matter how this turns out.

Impeachment is a political exercise so that 心脏’s impeachment raps versus 冠宗 are unlikely to prosper, as major blocs in both Houses are not exactly fond of 心脏. Moreover, will the Palace be willing to sideline its legislative agenda for the Senate to conduct months’值得弹trial审判?我对此表示高度怀疑。

SECOND, 心脏 has limited political capital.

冠宗’s July tweet may have been construed as alluding to 心脏 but 冠宗 didn’t specifically refer to him, offering her the option to exercise plausible deniability. 心脏, however, took the bait and publicly retaliated with little success.

冠宗, in just one tweet, managed to expose the limitations of 心脏’s political capital.

In a world of rainbows, butterflies, unicorns, and teletubbies, everything boils to down to a question of morality. But reality dictates that most political agreements are quid pro quo, i.e., you scratch my back, I scratch yours. What exactly can 心脏 offer that will overwhelm the overwhelming opportunity costs?

THIRD, 心脏’证据可能适得其反。

Days after he initially accused 冠宗 of extortion, 心脏 released a series of screenshots that purportedly showed his text conversations with 冠宗’s alleged bagman in Congress. 心脏 redacted the names, phone numbers, and numerous other parts of the exchange, thus raising questions regarding authenticity.

If anything, the screenshots may likely backfire on 心脏 because the screenshots are essentially declarations against interest. One of the screenshots show that 心脏 agreed to the lobby for the appointments of several people in exchange for a favorable Comelec decision, which sounds like a budding corruption case against 心脏.

心脏’s biggest mistake? 心脏 didn’即使他只需要等待几周,也不要等待。如果他只是让原有的第一代名人坐作为国会议员首次然后告诉她,后来撤回了一天,这个问题将’我一直在众议院选举法庭的管辖范围内,而不是在Comelec的管辖之下,他在那里的机会更大。

但是他没有’t, so here we are.

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